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Cool heads needed in showdown with Iran


THE THIRTY-FIVE member board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency met in Vienna earlier this month to consider issues related to Iran's nuclear capacity and non-proliferation compliance. After a lengthy overnight discussion it was decided to refer Iran to the United Nations Security Council for an examination of its breaches of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. As well, it was proposed to subject Iran to a mandatory regime of ''snap'' inspections of all its nuclear facilities. However, Iran will be given a one-month period of grace before the fifteen member Security Council commences its sanctions deliberations. According to Mohamed EI Baradei - director-general of the IAEA - ''Iran needs to regain confidence in negotiation'' and ''The matter is serious but not yet at crisis point''. Such an agenda will undoubtedly increase Middle East tensions and escalate global oil prices. But there are few alternative options.

Twenty-four years ago, Israel aborted Iraq's nuclear ambitions by a pre- emptive military strike. A similar action in Iran today could become an international disaster. With Russia and China aligned with the US, Britain, and France there is now a huge pressure on Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the head of the Iran Atomic Energy Organisation Gholamreza Aghazadeh to comply with IAEA strictures and to abandon all nuclear weapons aspirations. Behind Chinese and Russian commitments to become partners on this path of deterrence lie a number of significant geo-political issues. Both countries have been long-time trading partners with Iran. China has had almost a decade of experience in helping the US, Japan and South Korea try to broker deterrence and peace with North Korea.

At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin is on the verge of announcing to the world a new Russian initiative. This is reputed to be the establishment of international nuclear fuel cycle centres in which uranium enrichment for peaceful nuclear power plant fuel will be offered to the world community and in particular to Iran.

The formal proposal for this will be made to the G8 Summit meeting to be held in St Petersburg next July. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty was signed in 1970. It is now threatened from within by the treaty dropout, North Korea and the weapon seeking member state Iran. A further major threat to international safeguards is the possible acquisition of nuclear materials or nuclear weapons by international terrorists perhaps through non-signatory states such as Pakistan. Here the basic aim is to attempt the construction of ''dirty bombs'' or ''suitcase bombs''. Deterring shopping at ''nuclear supermarkets'' is a huge challenge for the IAEA.

The current NPT incorporates the earlier ''Atoms for Peace'' programs of the 1950s and 1960s in its text. This philosophy guarantees member states the right to build nuclear power plant for energy production in return for not engaging in covert activities leading to the manufacture of weapons grade uranium or plutonium. Both North Korea and Iran have breached this protocol through illicit technology and illicit trade in nuclear materials and components. They are now reaching a position where they can use ''nuclear blackmail'' to try to achieve their objectives. Over the past three decades, political liberalization and regime change have helped to arrest the probable nuclear weapons aspirations of countries such as Brazil, South Africa, Argentina some former Soviet States and Libya. Unfortunately North Korea and Iran appear to be ''hard'' cases because they are driven by ideology, insecurity and dictatorial leadership. The former appears still to exist in a ''communist time capsule'' from the cold war years and the latter poses a major danger to the global community because of its Jihadist obsessions with Israel and the US. North Korea has a population of around 22 million and an army in excess of one million. It is estimated that over 20 per cent of its GDP is utilised in its military pursuits and, since 1985, its covert and illicit attempts to acquire or produce nuclear weapons. One of the few nominally communist societies left in the wake of World War II, its faltering economy, its dictatorial government and its unpredictable foreign policy are sources of grave concern to the global community, in particular to South Korea, Japan, the US and China. In November of 2002, the CIA estimated that North Korea had one or two nuclear weapons. The seriousness of this situation is not only related to the stand-off between Pyongyang, South Korea, Japan and the United States. North Korea's action has gravely weakened the nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty. Worse still, signals have been sent to other nation states and terrorist groups that the acquisition of nuclear devices produces geopolitical benefits and is potentially an efficient form of blackmail in global confrontations. North Korea announced its intention to withdraw from the nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty on 10 January, 2003. This historically unprecedented move by any member nation was followed by rumours that some 8000 spent fuel rods were being removed from storage for reprocessing. Satellite detection has apparently confirmed this activity.

Will Iran follow North Korea's example? The portents for an IAEA-negotiated resolution of a potentially serious proliferation breach of the NPT by Iran do not look good. According to Iran's nuclear negotiators, UN Security Council sanctions will only reinforce the country's desire to build nuclear weapons. This could mean that Iran might become the world's second nation to withdraw from the NPT. Such a scenario could present the UN Security Council with an immense challenge. A nuclear-armed Jihadist country with a President who has an apocalyptic world-view and a hatred for Israel and the US may prove to be an ultimate test of international diplomacy and conflict resolution.

An even greater concern for the global community is the possibility that the present government of Iran might eventually be prepared to supply the Ummah - the brotherhood of fundamentalist Islamic states - with nuclear weaponry, ''Suitcase bombs'' in terrorist hands must be avoided at all cost. Compulsory regular inspection by the IAEA of all nuclear facilities in Iran must be a first step in any sanctions regimes. Professor Leslie Kemeny is the Australian Foundation Member of the International Nuclear Energy Academy. He is a Visiting Professorial Research Fellow and has closely monitored nuclear developments in the Middle East and South East Asia over 40 years.

The Canberra Times, Feb, 15, 2006



Expert opinion

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02.12.06

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Bill Pace

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